Since Corona was declared a pandemic, ordinary people like me have been bombarded with mind-blowing discussions, analytical articles and research papers as to how it started, who are responsible, when it will be over and most prominently whether it is a pandemic or just a hoax. As a layman, I used to read these articles with curiosity, and made frequent discussions with my brother Zafar, in Sheffield UK, a retired surgeon (FRCS). I will be honest to say that very soon I realized that nobody, including the researchers, knew much about the pandemic, except that it is virus and spreads through human contact.

Initially, we were made to believe that this has started in China (natural or laboratory-made is yet to be ascertained), and it will be contained not before China’s business is devastated (an opportunity for the production houses of the western world). People outside China were least concerned and watched with much indifference how and when (if at all) China will contain it.

Next came the virus spread in Iran and subsequently, Pakistan, India and the Middle East saw a sudden, unprecedented spread through the pilgrims returning from Iran. These countries were taken by surprise and were least prepared to cope with the fast and uncontrolled spread of the virus, a golden opportunity for the prophets of doom in Pakistani media, who instead of helping the government by cautioning and informing the people, opted to open their malicious arsenal against the government. It was very wise of them, because the government, taken by surprise, was in a semi-paralyzed state. The social and health facilities of these countries, especially India and Pakistan, were in a total mess. The West was watching with a sense of ease that this is a problem of under or undeveloped countries lacking sanitary and health facilities. So much so that when the pandemic hit Italy, people of Rome publicly defied it by jamming the streets of Rome. To a great surprise of the western world, the spread of the virus was much faster in Europe and the US. As a first reaction West exerted all energy in blaming China for the virus.

Then came the state of denial not only in Asia but the USA as well. In Pakistan, propaganda was rife that there is nothing like this virus, and the government is spreading wrong news with false data to secure maximum forein aid. There were videos showing from New York that news of cases of Corona infected people being treated is false, spread by the government; otherwise, the hospitals are empty. A common man like me who had never seen a coronal patient with high fever coughing and sneezing and who did not know a known person dying of Corona was confused, believing and disbelieving both versions.

West was still of the view that fast spread of the virus and deaths thereafter is the destiny of underdeveloped nations with minimum hygienic conditions and lack of medical facilities. West, on the contrary, will not be affected so much by the virus. They even gave a date for the end of the virus, April 15 2020. We in the East tend to believe in the western doctrine like the Quran and the Bible. So came the relief and complacence waiting for April 15, 2020, when we can start our business as usual. After all, this date had come from the masters of the world who control the destiny of mankind.

Suddenly the West realized that spread of the virus is real and need some corrective measures to contain it. They gave the bright idea of total lockdown. We in the East have been made to believe that to imitate the West is the only panacea for all evils. Demand grew in Pakistan to follow suit. However, fortunately, we have in Imran Khan a brave and visionary person as the Prime Minister who, by nature, is not a slave of the West. He took actions suited to the ground realities in Pakistan bracing the brutal attack by our mainstream media and frustrated politicians. On the other hand, India followed the Western version of total lockdown with only four hours of notice, oblivious of the plight of hundreds of thousands of people who as a result were forced to move on foot 1000 miles to their native towns and villages.

Today we see in Pakistan Corona is almost under control and India has the highest rate of Corona spread. I am neither giving credit of Corona control to Imran Khan nor blaming Indian administration for its fastest spread. Through my contacts in India, I can tell with conviction that after initial shock chaos and confusion, the Indian public, as well as the Indian government, are doing their best against the Corona spread and treatment of those infected keeping the fatality rate much below the world average.

All I want to say that it is not wise to contemplate that researchers and analysts know everything and their analysis should be blindly followed.

In order to discuss the effectiveness of the research and analyses regarding Corona, let me first discuss the biggest pandemic of this century.

It is about the Spanish flue of 1918, which infected 500 million people (a third of the total world population) and 50 million fatalities (10% of total infected). A research paper published in 1970s gave the following analysis.

• It was the end of long war 1914-1918 and soldiers returning home were sick and exhausted, having little resistance to infection.
• The fatality was higher in
• Younger than 5 years
• 20-40 years old
• 65 years and older
• Autopsy of the dead revealed that the infected persons had lost the elasticity of their lungs and the lungs had turned as hard non spongy rubber.

A layman like me is at a loss to comprehend the information we receive from this analysis, except than some people can get their PhD. But a common man does not learn the Dos and Don’ts during the spread of pandemic.

However unlike 1918, today the data collection in real-time are correct and detailed.

Present day Corona is still not abated and scenario world-wide are changing every day. But we are flooded with researches and analyses, which are keen to see their study published as soon as possible, without realizing how much confusion and panic their analyses are causing. We see lots of flaws in their analyses, so much so that now we are becoming indifferent to the suggesions and prophesies of our researchers and analysts. It appears that they are becoming impatient to get their research paper published, oblivious of its negative impact on the third world citizens, who take their advice seriously.

Here are some analyses, which the researchers and analysts need to study and look within and talk sense or keep quite.

• A reserch paper originated from Imperial College of UK warned and professed that Pakistan would see more than two millions fatalitiesin in June and July. It was based upon the un-hygienic conditions, lack of medical facilities and impossibility of social distancing due to crammed living conditions. I do agree that these factors may be responsible for the fast spread of virus. However they could not realize, how much chaos such analysis can cause in a third world country like Pakistan. Nevertheless I have failed to undersatnad why they missed out India in their prophecy where conditions are worse than Pakistan.
• In the back of researchers’ mind, it was a abelief that, western nations; the USA and Europe with their wealth, excellent researth & medical facities and educated/ disciplined population need not worry. It was patially true because when the pandemic started to spread, the third world realized that they did not have test kits, ventilators, space to quarantine the infected patients. The West on the contrary had all these and what they did not have, could be bought by their wealth.

Now I am printing a small chart of corona cases in countries, sampled on the basis on their wealth, resources and locations, based upon August 31 figures (figures change everyday)

I have deliberately not mentioned figures of African nations who also defied the analyses and research of the West and managed to control Corona cases faster and better than anticipated.

Now I request the researchers and analysts to give us an analysis of the Corona spread, Corona control and containment of deaths based upon the nation’s wealth, hygienic conditions, research and medical facilities, strategy and political will.

I know that the more you analyze, the more you will be confused because, in all your analysis, you will forget one essential factor— God’s will.

I know, many eyebrows will be raised even in my country. But if somebody can analyze the figures in the chart for the entire world and give us a plausible analysis, I will be grateful. But, I forget, the world is busy trying to produce a vaccine for the virus, not necessarily to help the humanity but to make money. After all, disasters bring opportunities and naïve persons like me falsely dream that the best brains of the world are busy in contemplating ideas for mitigating the misery of mankind. Unfortunately they are busy synthetically creating diseases or viruses to make medicines or vaccines, or busy in making war machines to frighten and kill mankind.

The Corona spread has also revealed one more dangerous but dark reality of the present day world.

When Corona infections were first detected in Wuhan (China), the Chinese government were quick to blame the spread of Corona deliberately carried out by the USA through US soldiers visiting Wuhan and then disappearing. The West ridiculed this allegation and Third World also did not pay much heed to it.

Later, when the virus spread in Europe and later in the USA and looked dangerous and uncontrollable, the US administration openly blamed China for deliberately orchestrating the export of virus to Europe and the USA. They even named it China virus.

I am not here to judge who is right and who is wrong. But it is obvious that biological wars, by creating and spreading laboratory made viruses are available as option for the world powers, who can not only execute but later justify their action. I am only trying to tell the common and peace-loving people of the world to realize the stark danger of the future world where the countries, we expect to devise the panacea for deceases, famine, and pandemics will not hesitate to create all these to destroy humanity whenever they wish.

Are we not proceeding towards our doomsday.

Needless to recall what Winston Churchill stated after WW2, that the Second World War could have been avoided without firing a bullet. Yet 85 million people died, and many more were devastated economically. Any regret?

M. Fakhar Mahmood
Pakistan